Playoff simulator.

How the points work

Power rating = 59% TWWP + 41% OWWP. The team weighted winning percentage uses the classification of each opponent. Wins against classes 1A–6A have weights 0.75, 0.85, 0.95, 1.05, 1.15 and 1.25. Loss weights are 1.25, 1.15, 1.05, 0.95, 0.85 and 0.75.

Opponent strength combines all opponents' weighted win and loss totals, then divides weighted wins by the combined total. It includes games against your team. A shared matchup is counted once and updates both schools.

District 2 uses the same formula with one difference: an opponent from a district outside the shared rating system (Districts 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 12) counts by its own record and class instead of its opponents' results, and non-PIAA opponents are left out of opponent strength. District 11 uses the same rule.

District 3 weighs it 55% TWWP + 45% OWWP, and its opponent strength counts every opponent on the full schedule, including games not yet played, at that opponent's current record.

District 1 uses a points average instead. Each win is worth 140 points, plus 20 for every class the opponent is above yours (minus 20 for every class below). Every game, win or loss, adds a bonus of 10 points for each win the opponent has. The rating is the total divided by games played, shown to three decimals. Only games in District 1's own results file count, using the classifications in that file.

District 5 gives each win 6 points plus the opponent's class number (7 for beating a Class A team, up to 12 for beating 6A). Losses earn nothing. The rating is the total divided by games played, counting only the first 10 games.

District 6 also uses a points average. Each win is worth 100 points, plus 10 for every class the opponent is above yours (minus 10 for every class below), plus a bonus of 10 for every win by the team you beat. Losses earn nothing. The total is divided by games played, and forfeits don't count. Its 5A and 6A brackets are shared with Districts 8, 9 and 10, so those schools are rated the same way.

The WPIAL (District 7) has no rating formula. Teams qualify by section record: the top 4 in 6A, the top 3 in each section in 5A, 3A, 2A and 1A, and the top 2 in each 4A section, plus at-large wild cards picked by the WPIAL football committee (3 in 5A, 2 in 4A, 4 in 3A, 2A and 1A). Section ties go to head-to-head, then Gardner points (section games only: 100 per win plus 10 for every section win by each team you beat), then the WPIAL point differential (each section game's margin, capped at 10; a forfeit counts as 10), then the football committee, reverting to head-to-head whenever possible. The committee's wild cards and seeds have no published formula, so those are our projection: the wild cards are the best overall records left (our points rating breaks ties), section champions are seeded first, and everyone else is seeded by our points rating. Rules come from the WPIAL's 2026–27 football schedule cover page.

District 10 doesn't publish a seeding formula. Recent brackets have followed record and head-to-head, so we project its seeds by winning percentage, then head-to-head, then our points rating. Treat District 10 as a projection, like the WPIAL's wild cards.

District 12 picks its playoff teams by league championships rather than a formula, so it isn't included.

The projection

Every remaining game is called by our points rating, and the team with the better win chance is the projected winner. A manual win or loss replaces that pick until you select Auto. Final records and power ratings are recalculated from completed results plus those projected and selected winners.

Points rating and win chances

Win chance comes from the gap between the two teams' points ratings, plus a home-field edge of about 2 points. The bigger the gap, the closer the favorite's chance gets to 100%; evenly matched teams sit near 50%. A team needs at least 5 scored games for a points rating. Each team's points rating comes from every scored game in the district's system, adjusted for the strength of the opponent, so it combines points scored, points allowed and strength of schedule in one number. Each game is judged against what the ratings expected, and no single game can move a team more than 21 points from that expectation. A one-score loss to a stronger team, even one from a bigger class, barely costs anything, and a blowout of a weak team isn't treated as underperforming. Forfeits are left out, and games decided in overtime count as even. When two teams have never played and share no common opponent, the win chance is pulled toward 50% to reflect the longer chain of games behind the comparison. Ratings come only from game results, starting every team at average. Tested on this season's games with each game held out, it picked the winner about 80% of the time.

Playoff format

District 4: Class A, 3A and 4A take four teams (1 vs 4, 2 vs 3, then a final). Class 2A takes eight (1–8, 4–5, 2–7, 3–6, no reseeding). The 3A field size is based on last season's format.

District 2: Class 2A and 3A take four teams, and 4A takes eight. Class A is a District 2–11 subregional: if the top four split two and two by district, each district plays its own championship first and the winners meet; otherwise it is 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. Class 5A joins District 6/9: the top two from each side play for their district title, and the champions meet.

District 3: Class A takes two teams for a final. Class 2A and 3A take four. Class 4A takes ten (7–10 and 8–9 play in, the top two get byes). Class 5A and 6A take twelve (seeds 5–12 play in, the top four get byes).

District 11: Class 2A and 5A take four teams, and 3A, 4A and 6A take eight. Class A plays in the District 2–11 subregional above.

District 5: Class A takes four, and 2A takes all four of its teams. Bedford and Somerset (3A) go on to a six-team District 5–8–9 subregional; Carrick (District 8) is rated alongside them.

District 6: Class A takes twelve (seeds 1–4 get byes) and 2A takes up to twelve (all eleven qualify). Class 3A and 4A take four. In 5A, the top two District 6/9 teams play for that side of the subregional with District 2. Class 6A is a four-team District 6–8–10 subregional. Formats come from District 6's 2026–27 handbook.

WPIAL: 6A takes four, 4A eight, 5A twelve (four byes), 2A thirteen (three byes) and 1A sixteen. Class 3A and 1A take sixteen (top three per section plus four wild cards). Section champions host their opening-round game.

District 10: 2026 field sizes haven't been published, so we use 2025's: Class A five, 2A four, 3A eight and 4A two. McDowell and Erie (6A) play in District 6's 6A subregional.

District 1: Class A and 2A take two teams for a district final, and the champion then plays District 12. Class 4A takes four, and 5A and 6A take sixteen (1–16, 8–9, and so on).

Class 6A is a four-team District 2–4 subregional with Williamsport and five District 2 schools. The higher seed hosts every game.

State playoffs

The State playoffs tab follows the PIAA's 2026 football brackets. Each district champion slot carries that district's projected title chances, region slots are settled by a projected game between those champions, and every state game is treated as a neutral site. Districts we don't model (8, 9 and 12) are filled with their top team by our points rating, marked "projected," or left open when we have too few of their games.

Playoff projections

Playoff win chances use the same method, with the higher seed as the home team. Title chances multiply each team's win chances through every round.

Checked against the district

Equal power ratings are broken by head-to-head, then TWWP (or win points in District 1); anything deeper is shown as a tie.

Data coverage

Sources

District 4 formula ↗ · Official District 4 standings ↗ · District 2 standings ↗ · District 3 standings ↗ · District 11 standings ↗ · District 1 rankings ↗ · District 1 formula ↗ · District 6 rankings ↗ · District 5 ratings ↗ · District 6 scoreboards ↗ · WPIAL schedules and alignment ↗ · WPIAL standings ↗ · Post-Gazette scoreboards ↗ · PIAA football classifications ↗

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